Surprise! DOGE Maths Don't Compute: Fictional Savings in Federal Contracting
Are you really shocked that DOGE cannot math correctly? We're not, but the insights are surprising.
From the start of DOGE, its aims and achievements were questionable. The New York Times has many articles on how the “Department of Government Efficiency" really isn’t that efficient in its haphazard and often illegal defunding of US government programs and even independent organizations.
Here at Career Pivot, we’re looking at DOGE data too, led by the gifted data scientists Sean Kelly and Thomas Zuber.
Please explore today’s data set yourself, publish what you find, and give credit to Sean Kelly of Career Pivot when you use the data.
We’ll be sharing more findings from this and other data sets over the next few weeks. Be sure to sign up to get updates on our explorations.
DOGE Does Not Understand Federal Contracts
Wow! If you have any basic understanding of Federal contracting, you’ll immediately spot the foolishness in DOGE data.
They seem to confuse three very basic terms.
Estimated Contract Value: This is the maximum amount the USG could potentially spend in a contract. It’s usually set arbitrarily high. USG does this in case the contractor does really well and the US agency can find more money, the USG doesn’t need to start a whole new procurement. This value is rarely reached.
Obligated Amount: This is how much money the USG actually has to spend on the contract. The contractor has to perform on a monthly or deliverable basis to be paid a pro-rated amount. Obligated amount is often only a percentage of the estimated value.
Disbursed Amount: How much money the government actually spent on the contract. It is always lower than the Estimated Value. It can reach Obligated value, again, if the contractor performs well over the life of the contract, but it will usually only meet the obligated amount in the last month or deliverable of the contract.
DOGE counted Estimated Value every time in their contract terminations. A laughable error, if it wasn’t upending so many lives and careers.
Department of Interior
DOGE savings are vastly overstated. DOGE claims $3.0 billion in savings, whereas, there are only $259.6 million in terminated obligations.
A single contract awarded to Endeavors to operate the Pecos Children’s Center for up to 3,000 unaccompanied alien children in Texas drives the DOGE savings and terminated obligations.
DOGE calculated a savings of $2.9 billion because the contract ceiling was $3.3 billion with an obligated amount of $427.7 million. The $2.9 billion in savings is 95% of the $3.0 billion in DOGE savings for Interior.
Of the obligated $427.7 million, $302.0 million were spent on the contract meaning the terminated obligation was $125.7 million. That $125.7 million terminated obligation is 48% of the $259.6 million in terminated obligations for Interior.
Side note: Why was a contract for unaccompanied minors awarded by Interior but funded by the Office of Refugee Resettlement within HHS?
Other Notable Findings
Texas ($132.5 million), District of Columbia ($35.4 million), Maryland ($25.3 million), Colorado ($17.2 million), and California ($14.3 million) have experienced the most in obligations terminated.
The top 4 award recipients had more than $10 million each in obligations terminated representing $186.6 million in terminated obligations or 72% of the roughly $259.6 million in terminated obligations.
Family Endeavors - $125.7 million
Mathematica - $24.9 million
Westat - $22.8 million
Environment Management and Planning Solutions - $13.1 million
Award terminations affected scientific and technical support, human resources and organizational consulting, subscriptions, program and task order management, administrative and National Environmental Policy Act consulting, and research and evaluations on nutrition including Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Nearly $20 million in DOGE savings are tied to two contracts at the Office of Minority and Women Inclusion for diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility training and psychological safety training.
Both contracts valued at $9.9 million were awarded at the end of September 2024 and in both cases no money had been obligated or spent when they were terminated in late January 2025. In short, these two contracts account for two-thirds of the $30.4 million in DOGE’s overstated savings at CFPB.
Other Notable Findings
Obligations were terminated in 21 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The top locations most impacted by obligations terminated are District of Columbia ($27.5 million), Virginia ($24.2 million), Maryland ($3.8 million), Massachusetts ($3.4 million), and New York ($2.8 million).
Award terminations affected software licensing and renewals, data subscriptions, digital learning platforms, research and enforcement support, legal and compliance support, strategic consulting, expert witnesses, and consumer testing.
Department of Agriculture
State departments of agriculture and education are experiencing the largest share of terminated obligations: 11 state agencies account for $490.7 million in terminations or 48% of the little more than $1 billion in terminated obligations.
These $490.7 million of terminated obligations are only 16 awards, that sought to purchase local food from underserved producers or small businesses with the intent of using the food at schools, child care centers, or underserved communities.
In other words, DOGE cut a program that was give food to National School Lunch Program schools and Child and Adult Care Food Program child care centers.
They are literally taking food out of the mouths of poor American children.
Other Notable Findings
Across the 523 verified terminated awards at the USDA, DOGE reports savings of $1.3 billion, whereas the obligations terminated calculated from USA Spending total a little more than $1.0 billion.
While DOGE savings are overstated, the obligations terminated represent a catastrophic loss primarily to state government agencies of education and agriculture as well as Native American tribes.
Texas Department of Agriculture - $107.8 million
California Department of Education - $71.4 million
Florida Department of Agriculture - $65 million
Department of Social Services California - $47.2 million
New York State Education Department - $38.9 million
North Carolina Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services - $30.3 million
Michigan Department of Education - $29.6 million
Illinois State Board of Education - $26.3 million
New Jersey Department of Agriculture - $26.1 million
New York Food For New York Families - $24.0 million
Georgia Department of Education - $23.5 million
Award terminations affected support for underserved and local producers, professional services, business and childcare support, facilitation services, food safety studies, digital subscriptions, and training on diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Department of Energy
DOGE claims $637.8 million in savings, whereas, there are $114.0 million in terminated obligations.
72% of the $523.8 million in overstated DOGE savings are attributable to seven terminated contracts. These contracts have large contract ceiling values in excess of relative to the amount of money obligated.
The services rendered under these contracts included:
Appliance standards analysis by Guidehouse,
Security and safety training by Kupono Government Services,
Legal services by Morgan, Lewis, and Bockius,
Consulting and support services by Kadiak,
Talent acquisition services by Business Management Associates,
Rapid response creation of internal and external documents by McKinsey,
Management support by Archetype II.
Other Notable Findings
District of Columbia ($43.2 million), Virginia ($21.3 million), Alaska ($17.6 million), New Mexico ($9.3 million), and Pennsylvania ($6.6 million) have experienced the most in obligations terminated.
The top 10 award recipients had more than $3 million each in obligations terminated representing $82.8 million in terminated obligations or 73% of the roughly $114.0 million in terminated obligations.
Award terminations affected construction and facility renovation, technical support and contracted work for general service contracts, clean energy and sustainability projects, administrative and program management services, technical advisory and engineering services contracts, event and logistics planning, and subscriptions to publications.
Department of Education
DOGE claims $1.5 billion in savings, whereas, there are $706.8 million in terminated obligations.
The top 12 award recipients had more than $10 million each in obligations terminated representing $350.5 million in terminated obligations or nearly 50% of the $706.8 million in terminated obligations.
American Institutes for Research - $76.8 million
General Dynamics Information Technology - $48.6 million
Westat - $48.4 million
Research Triangle Institute - $42.2 million
Mathematica - $32.3 million
Abt Associates - $20.9 million
Accenture Federal Services - $17.0 million
Community Training and Assistance Center - $13.5 million
Wested - $13.3 million
Georgia State University Research Foundation - $13.0 million
Teachers College at Columbia University - $12.6 million
Western Michigan University - $11.4 million
Other Notable Findings
The District of Columbia ($192.7 million), Virginia ($121.5 million), California ($61.0 million), North Carolina ($60.5 million), and Maryland ($56.8 million) have experienced the most in obligations terminated.
Award terminations affected practices and policies that improve learning outcomes, teacher residency programs,programs focused on equity in education, technical assistance, logistical support, and research.
Department of Veterans Affairs
DOGE actually came close to its stated achievements with the VA. For verified awards, DOGE claims $846.3 million in savings, whereas, there are $734.0 million in terminated obligations.
Terminated obligations for the VHA Integrated Healthcare Transformation IDIQ Contract total $297 million or 41% of the $734.0 million in terminated obligations.
Other Notable Findings
Virginia ($346.3 million), District of Columbia ($255.4 million), Maryland ($39.7 million), Florida ($13.5 million), and Arizona ($10.3 million) have experienced the most in obligations terminated.
The top 15 award recipients had more than $10 million each in obligations terminated representing $510.1 million in terminated obligations or 69% of the roughly $734.0 million in terminated obligations.
Award terminations affected professional and technical consulting, IT and program modernization, healthcare services and support, environmental compliance and due diligence, facility and construction support, program and project management, and logistics and supply chain.
What are your thoughts?
DOGE claims to be eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse through a mandate from the American people. Elon Musk expresses utter shock that anyone questions DOGE or doubts his efforts. I’m sure you may have a different opinion.
Please share your thoughts on DOGE effectivness now.
It is awful. I think the numbers are great, but the most powerful combination is when numbers are combined with simple conclusions that the mind can grasp, otherwise it stays abstract in a way that feels surreal. Your sentence above: these cuts are literally taking food of poor American children’s mouths is probably what lingers the most.
Thanks. Someone needs to frame DOGE in the context of waste, fraud and abuse. They’ve engaged in a litany of activities that fall under all three of these descriptors. For example, their claims of savings are clearly fraudulent and systematically overstate the actual savings. This is no accident. The entire fork was a huge waste of taxpayer money that was launched with absolutely zero oversight. The only people on my office who took the original fork already had outside job offers, and approximately $500k went to pay them an additional salary once they left government. They fired all the inspectors general so nobody can find real fraud, waste and abuse.