Dodgy DOGE Maths at Treasury, EPA, DOT
Surprise! DOGE Maths Don't Compute with Fictional Savings in Federal Contracting
When agencies report budget cuts, the numbers should match reality. But that’s not the case with the “Department of Government Efficiency”.
DOGE maths are, well, dodgy.
Here at Career Pivot, we’re looking at DOGE data, led by the gifted data scientists Sean Kelly and Thomas Zuber. We are finding all sorts of dodgy maths.
Take a look at the chart above comparing actual terminated obligations according to USA Spending and the savings claimed by DOGE.
What stands out?
Treasury: DOGE claimed savings of $2.4 billion, but only $161.9 million was actualy cut.
EPA: Reported $289.1 million in savings, yet only $150.8 million was terminated.
DOT: Supposedly saved $82.1 million, but only had a modest $31.2 million in cuts.
These disparities show that DOGE doesn’t know how savings are calculated, communicated, and credited in the Federal government.
Treasury Department
DOGE savings are vastly overstated. $1.9 billion of DOGE’s 2.4 billion in savings are concentrated in one contract: Enterprise Program, Project, and Integration Services.
The award was a blanket purchase agreement - a type of contract that has a high ceiling, but no actual money for purchasing anything yet. The Internal Revenue Service awarded the contract in August 2024, but it had not obligated any money when the contract was terminated in February 2025.
Beyond that one contract, the top 4 award recipients had more than $10 million each in obligations terminated representing $92.2 million in terminated obligations or 57% of the roughly $161.9 million in terminated obligations.
ATI Government Solutions - $28.7 million
Mitre Corporation - $28.5 million
Summome Native Ventures - $19.3 million
Deloitte - $15.7 million
Award terminations affected project and change management, IRS modernization and data services, subscriptions, program and business support services, services for general consulting and diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA), enterprise strategy and printing services, and climate and risk management.
Environmental Protection Agency
DOGE terminated $51.5 million in awards referencing the Inflation Reduction Act and another $65.9 million in environmental justice awards. These two groups are not mutually exclusive.
The Inflation Reduction Act contains a specific provision that created the EPA’s Environmental and Climate Justice Program with funding through September 30, 2026.
The top 9 award recipients had more than $5 million each in obligations terminated representing $83.4 million in terminated obligations or 55% of the roughly $150.8 million in terminated obligations.
Endyna Inc. - $29.9 million
International City/County Management Association - $8.3 million
Green & Healthy Homes Initiative - $6.8 million
Minneapolis Foundation - $6.8 million
National Wildlife Federation - $6.5 million
San Diego State University Foundation - $6.5 million
Philanthropy Northwest - $6.3 million
Wichita State University - $6.2 million
University Of Minnesota - $6.0 million
Award terminations affected community environmental assistance, water and public health education, air quality and climate initiatives, clean energy support, local environmental projects, COVID-19 and solar initiatives, and energy programs for housing, smoke, and heat-related problems.
Examining the 211 terminated awards by place of performance, there were obligations terminated in 36 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. The top locations most impacted by obligations terminated are:
District of Columbia: $40.9 million
Virginia: $13.3 million
Minnesota: $12.8 million
West Virginia: $7.8 million
Oregon: $7.7 million
California: $7.4 million
Vermont: $7.3 million
Department of Transportation
Most agencies have more than half of their terminated obligations concentrated with a few recipients, but the U.S. Department of Transportation is different.
62% of the $31.2 million in terminated obligations are recipients with terminated obligations less than $1 million. This group contains 85 recipients out of 90 total recipients with terminated obligations.
Examining the 170 terminated awards by place of performance, there were obligations terminated in 20 states, Canada, and the District of Columbia. The top locations most impacted by obligations terminated are:
District of Columbia: $17.1 million
Virginia: $6.5 million
Canada: $2.8 million
Maryland: $1.4 million
New Jersey: $962.7 thousand
Alabama: $519.1 thousand
Award terminations affected subscriptions, membership services, executive office and contract support, program support, office and departmental administrative services, professional learning, national training, environmental services, policy development, and rail information systems.
Housing and Urban Development
Terminated grants for the Community Compass Technical Assistance and Capacity Building Program accounted for 28% of the terminated obligations. Community Compass grantees work on disaster recovery, affordable housing development, rapid rehousing, permanent supportive housing and housing voucher programs.
There were 9 award recipients of terminated HUD awards with obligations terminated in excess of $10 million.
Deloitte Consulting - $32.0 million
Corporation for Supportive Housing - $23.8 million
Cloudburst Consulting Group - $20.8 million
Technical Assistance Collaborative - $19.7 million
Local Initiatives Support Corporation - $17.4 million
Project Solutions - $17.0 million
Ernst & Young - $14.7 million
Homebase Center For Common Concerns - $13.2 million
Enterprise Community Partners - $11.5 million
These 9 award recipients represent $170.2 million in terminated obligations, 51% of the $333.1 million in terminated obligations. The remaining $162.9 million in terminated obligations covers 165 award recipients.